Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 21.502381 23.514922 25.760049 28.477409 31.715255 35.500461 40.339261
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 18.709017 21.365487 24.567215 28.810014 34.452143 41.974952 53.324903
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 16.769553 19.759305 23.576252 29.011004 36.949201 48.924910 70.491068
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.198245 18.317754 22.473665 28.730523 38.606699 55.258685 91.222172
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 14.092293 17.306372 21.744996 28.762835 40.665558 63.103883 122.896627
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.125977 16.353593 20.937625 28.477071 42.065192 70.424878 164.980944
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.327732 15.543364 20.218935 28.174739 43.316392 78.173434 228.414020
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.667143 14.862898 19.605899 27.925489 44.581382 86.853400 336.293906
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.116969 14.293274 19.095602 27.758886 45.962496 97.022482 555.762948
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.542696 13.642208 18.389729 27.127309 46.151759 103.862907 919.760914
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.373989 13.588155 18.635179 28.294509 50.900463 132.498576 18662.334825
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.972675 13.145104 18.191787 28.054634 52.083244 148.612034 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.648001 12.807398 17.907713 28.117676 54.204409 174.551392 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.372645 12.530491 17.704568 28.321396 56.858863 212.029683 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.110369 12.258057 17.485523 28.459724 59.425061 260.601686 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.808194 11.903740 17.092776 28.162176 60.510773 303.362057 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.572681 11.645747 16.854372 28.181349 62.747404 380.470553 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.315746 11.339236 16.505218 27.899709 63.829661 457.572310 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.075442 11.049181 16.167536 27.605083 64.800171 557.230402 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.857796 10.787367 15.866170 27.363090 65.939461 704.164011 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.663736 10.556867 15.609635 27.201561 67.405062 950.361475 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.429809 10.249674 15.190212 26.590804 66.714096 1087.292555 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.402814 10.293273 15.445389 27.718702 74.649235 4868.624871 NaN